Carrie W.

MiTi 2026 Deep Dive · Honolulu, Hawaii

1367 activities 2023-04-142026-04-14 1540 total hours

🏥 Recovery Prescription

Good shape — fitness is accessible

✓ Training load is well balanced — keep doing what you're doing
✓ Room to add intensity or volume if targeting a race build
MiTi 2026: 17 weeks out. BUILD PHASE: 17 weeks to MiTi — plenty of time to build and recover

📊 Your Fitness Story — In Plain English

An AI-generated narrative interpreting your fitness, fatigue, and form chart. Based on 1367 activities over 3 years.

Where You Are Right Now
Your training is well balanced right now. Fitness (CTL=47) and recent load (ATL=43) are close to equilibrium (TSB=4). You're maintaining without digging a fatigue hole — a sustainable place to train from.
Injury Risk Right Now
Your A:C ratio is 1.00 — right in the productive training zone (0.8–1.3). Your recent training load is well matched to what your body has adapted to. You can push a little harder or maintain, and you're not at elevated injury risk.
Current Training Cycle
Your current training build started around 2026-01-30 when your CTL was 39. Over the past 74 days, you've gained 8 CTL points, bringing you to 47. At 0.8 CTL/week, this is a conservative build — plenty of room to push harder if you want to. For context, you're currently at 91% of your all-time peak CTL (52, reached on 2025-09-03).
⚠ Data Quality Note
46.5% of activities (636 of 1367) had no heart rate data. For these, training load was estimated from your own averages by sport type (Run: 89/hr, Bike: 26.2/hr, Swim: 46.2/hr). Indoor trainer rides without a chest strap are the main gap — wearing a HR monitor on Zwift would significantly improve accuracy.

📖 How to Read This Dashboard

All the jargon in this report, explained in plain English with color-coded ranges.

CTL — Chronic Training Load ("Fitness")
Think of CTL as your fitness bank account. It's a rolling 42-day average of how hard you've been training. Higher = fitter. It goes up slowly when you train consistently and drops slowly when you rest. It takes weeks of steady work to build and doesn't vanish overnight.
Below 40 = low base ✘ 40–70 = moderate fitness ⚠ 70–90 = strong ✔ 90+ = elite / race-ready ★
ATL — Acute Training Load ("Fatigue")
ATL is like your credit card bill — it reflects how hard the last 7 days have been. It moves fast: one big training week spikes it, a few rest days drop it. When ATL is much higher than CTL, your body is absorbing more stress than it's adapted to.
Below CTL = recovering ✔ Near CTL = balanced ✔ Well above CTL = overreaching ✘
TSB — Training Stress Balance ("Form")
TSB = CTL minus ATL. It tells you whether you're fresh or buried. Negative means your recent training is heavier than your body has adapted to. Positive means you're rested. The sweet spot for race day is slightly positive (+5 to +15) — fit but fresh. Deep negative (below -20) means you're digging a fatigue hole.
Below -25 = danger zone ✘ -25 to -10 = tired but building ⚠ -10 to +5 = balanced ✔ +5 to +15 = race-ready ★ Above +20 = losing fitness (too much rest) ✘
A:C Ratio — Acute:Chronic Workload Ratio ("Injury Risk")
This compares your recent training (last 7 days) to your long-term average (last 28 days). A ratio of 1.0 means you're training at exactly your usual level. Above 1.0 means you've ramped up. Research shows injury risk climbs steeply above 1.3 and becomes serious above 1.5. Below 0.8 means you're detraining.
Below 0.8 = undertrained ↓ 0.8 – 1.3 = sweet spot ✔ 1.3 – 1.5 = caution ⚠ Above 1.5 = high injury risk ✘
Peak CTL — Your All-Time Best Fitness
The highest CTL you've ever reached. Useful as a ceiling reference — it shows what your body has been capable of sustaining in the past. Getting close to your peak CTL means you're approaching your personal best fitness. Exceeding it means you're in uncharted territory (exciting but watch the A:C ratio).

Lifetime Training Eras

Annual average fitness (CTL), peak fitness, run volume, and average pace across your entire Strava history. Vertical line marks 2023 (knee surgery).

YearHoursAvg CTLPeak CTLRun MiBike MiAvg Pace
202335335.251.849729649.9 min/mi
202449140.450.466345019.7 min/mi
202555241.952.268443249.8 min/mi
2026 YTD→FY154 → 5304449.5226 → 779990 → 34089.9 min/mi

YTD→FY: actual year-to-date numbers projected to full-year pace based on days elapsed

Current Fitness State as of 2026-04-14

CTL = 42-day fitness. ATL = 7-day fatigue. TSB = CTL - ATL (positive = fresh, negative = tired). Based on Strava Relative Effort (RE) summed daily.

CTL (Fitness)
ATL (Fatigue)
TSB (Form)
Peak CTL (all-time)
A:C Ratio

Fitness / Fatigue / Form

The money chart. Rising CTL = building fitness. Negative TSB for weeks = overreaching risk. Target TSB +5 to +15 on race day.

Training Volume Trend

Monthly hours by discipline. Tap legend to isolate.

Year-Over-Year Comparison

Monthly totals stacked across years. Useful for spotting seasonality and identifying if this year is ahead or behind.

Pace Progression

Average training pace per month across 3 years - are you getting faster?

MiTi 2026 Race Prediction Monte Carlo, 2000 runs

Based on your training pace distributions with race-day derating (bike 8-12% off training pace, run 10-20% slower due to bike leg).

Half Ironman (70.3)

6:49
Range: 6:45 – 6:53 (50% confidence)
Swim
0:40
Bike
3:43
Run
2:21

Full Ironman (140.6)

14:22
Range: 14:14 – 14:29 (50% confidence)
Swim
1:20
Bike
7:46
Run
5:08

Training Volume Totals (3 years)

Run
2071 mi
340h · 370 sessions
Bike
12779 mi
791h · 372 sessions
Swim
284 mi
158h · 222 sessions
Strength
143 hr
210 sessions
Run Elev
12.0k ft
Bike Elev
142.3k ft

Training Consistency

Active Days
88.7%
973 of 1097
Weeks ≥5h
152
of 158 weeks
Bricks
22
days with bike+run

Day-of-Week Pattern

Longest Efforts

Recent 90-Day Pace Signature

Your pace distribution for recent training.

Run (n=33)
9.8 min/mi
9.6 – 10.0
Bike (n=26)
16.4 mph
15.9 – 17.1
Swim (n=26)
113 s/100yd
110 – 116
Generated 2026-04-17 · Powered by Strava API (lifetime data) · Built with Chart.js